38 The Business of Canadian Hog Farming Better Pork | February 2024 Given the losses producers faced over the last two years and are likely to face in 2024, resurgent producers are likely to be forced to trim the breeding herd again in 2024. According to estimates by the Iowa State University economics department, a normal farrow-to-finish U.S. hog producer would have faced losses in 10 months during the 12-month period from November 2022 to October 2023, with the hefty losses averaging US$21 per hog per month. Hog farmers are likely to have been forced to liquidate sows in the winter, which is expected to cause lower hog and pork supplies in 2024. But this has been talked about time and time again and it’ll need to be monitored closely to see how it impacts the market. A more optimistic view of the economy and the prospects of lower interest rates in the second half of 2024 could help ignite more domestic demand and support lean hog futures in 2024. As demand improves and costs drop slowly, lower supplies are needed to boost the hog producer profits in 2024. BP Moe’s Market Minute PIGCHAMP.COM/BENCHMARK-MAGAZINE Sign-up to receive a printed copy of the 2024 edition of Benchmark Magazine. MOE AGOSTINO & ABHINESH GOPAL Maurizio (“Moe”) is chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management and Abhinesh is head of commodity research.
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