Market report for 5 November 2013

by JOHN BANCROFT

November 5, 2013
 

 
Market Drivers:

  • the US corn harvest is 73% completed compared to 59%  last week and the 5-year average of 71%
  • the soybean harvest is 86% completed compared to 77% last week and the 5-year average of 85%
  • the wet conditions in Ontario has meant a slow harvest which has helped to support the basis level in corn i.e. Huron FOB Farm corn basis moving from -$0.60/bushel to -$0.45/bushel
  • the market is awaiting the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report to be released on Friday, November 8th at noon
  • the WASDE report in September had the 2013-2014 corn crop estimate at 155.3 bushels/acre with production at 13.843 billion bushels
  • Informa corn estimates for the November report are 161.2 bushels/acre for production of 14.233 billion bushels
  • The WASDE report in September had soybeans at 41.2 bushels/acre with production at 3.149 billion bushels
  • Informa soybean estimates for the November report are 43.3 bushels/acre for production of 3.268 billion bushels

Bank of Canada Annual Summary of the 2013 Survey on Canadian Foreign Exchange Hedging

  • Each year since 2004, the Bank of Canada has carried out an annual qualitative survey to assess client activity in Canadian foreign exchange (FX) hedging
  • Click on the above title to view the full summary online
  • The survey indicated that Canadian bank clients expect the following Canadian dollar averages and ranges
  • 2013 – average of $0.9901 with an estimate range of $0.9540 to $1.0267
  • 2014 – average of $0.9853 with an estimate range of $0.9325 to $1.0253

This Week’s Featured Graph:


 
The above graph is based on weekly average Bank of Canada Noon Hour Rates for the Canadian Dollar:

 

  • Since 2010 the range of the Canadian dollar value has been from about 95 cents to 105 cents
  • Averages have been 2010- $0.97; 2011- $1.01; 2012 - $1.00; 2013 – to-date the average is $0.9756
  • Check the Backgrounder on The Exchange Rate by the Bank Canada that provides a summary of what impacts the value of the Canadian Dollar
  • The blue triangles in the graph show the closing futures for the Canadian dollar based on last Thursday’s CME Canadian Dollar futures

Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice
 
 


Posted on: 
November 5, 2013