by JOHN BANCROFT
November 5, 2013 Market Drivers:
- the US corn harvest is 73% completed compared to 59% last week and the 5-year average of 71%
- the soybean harvest is 86% completed compared to 77% last week and the 5-year average of 85%
- the wet conditions in Ontario has meant a slow harvest which has helped to support the basis level in corn i.e. Huron FOB Farm corn basis moving from -$0.60/bushel to -$0.45/bushel
- the market is awaiting the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report to be released on Friday, November 8th at noon
- the WASDE report in September had the 2013-2014 corn crop estimate at 155.3 bushels/acre with production at 13.843 billion bushels
- Informa corn estimates for the November report are 161.2 bushels/acre for production of 14.233 billion bushels
- The WASDE report in September had soybeans at 41.2 bushels/acre with production at 3.149 billion bushels
- Informa soybean estimates for the November report are 43.3 bushels/acre for production of 3.268 billion bushels
Bank of Canada Annual Summary of the 2013 Survey on Canadian Foreign Exchange Hedging
- Each year since 2004, the Bank of Canada has carried out an annual qualitative survey to assess client activity in Canadian foreign exchange (FX) hedging
- Click on the above title to view the full summary online
- The survey indicated that Canadian bank clients expect the following Canadian dollar averages and ranges
- 2013 – average of $0.9901 with an estimate range of $0.9540 to $1.0267
- 2014 – average of $0.9853 with an estimate range of $0.9325 to $1.0253
This Week’s Featured Graph: The above graph is based on weekly average Bank of Canada Noon Hour Rates for the Canadian Dollar:
- Since 2010 the range of the Canadian dollar value has been from about 95 cents to 105 cents
- Averages have been 2010- $0.97; 2011- $1.01; 2012 - $1.00; 2013 – to-date the average is $0.9756
- Check the Backgrounder on The Exchange Rate by the Bank Canada that provides a summary of what impacts the value of the Canadian Dollar
- The blue triangles in the graph show the closing futures for the Canadian dollar based on last Thursday’s CME Canadian Dollar futures
Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for information only and is not intended as advice
Posted on:
November 5, 2013