2015 Canadian agricultural outlook released

Thursday, February 12, 2015

by MIKE BEAUDIN

Cattle producers will see record profits in 2015 while grain and oilseed producers will see a slight decline in profits, according to the 2015 Canadian agricultural outlook.

Continued high prices and a tight supply market will drive improved cattle profits. A 2014 bumper grain crop in the United States will drive prices lower but profits will remain above the average over the past five years, said senior officials from Agriculture Canada who released the outlook Friday.

Officials said net farm incomes for 2014 will reach a record level of $14 billion with the average net operating income per farm forecast to be about $78,000, also a record high.
 
For 2015, the preliminary forecast suggests farm incomes will be down moderately, but remain historically high at $13 billion.

Growing strength in the cattle and hog industry, strong crop sales resulting from high carry-in stocks despite softening grain prices and stable input costs will continue to sustain the farm economy in 2015, said the outlook.

Grain and oilseed prices will also feel the pinch of high global supply in 2015 but a falling dollar makes Canadian products more competitive and will ease some of the declines in crop prices. A drop in fuel prices resulting from lower oil prices will also add to farm income although the full impact is difficult to forecast because the crude oil market is so volatile.

Key findings in the report include:

• In the latter part of 2014, grain and oilseed prices declined following an unprecedented U.S. corn and soybean harvest, but Canadian sale volumes remained strong.
• Grain and oilseed sales increased as farmers carried forward a large portion of their record 2013 crop into 2014. A larger than average 2014 harvest also supported grain and oilseed sales.
• Global prices for grains and oilseeds are projected to increase over the medium term.
• Horticulture will see stable receipts overall. Lower apple, cranberry and grape receipts will be offset by stronger blueberry sales in 2014.
• In 2015 receipts for most horticulture crops will stay the same with some growth in greenhouse receipts over the two years.
• Cattle and hog sectors enjoyed record prices in 2014 due to low North American supplies. Lower feed grain prices also contributed to higher incomes.
• Cattle receipts will continue to benefit from tight markets and higher prices in 2015.
• An increased availability of slaughter hogs in North America in 2015 will soften prices and lead incomes to return to longer-term average levels following an income surge in 2014.
• Incomes in the dairy and poultry sectors will remain at high levels compared to other sectors and will not show significant growth in 2015 as prices and costs hold steady.
• Average total income of farm families, which includes the family’s share of net operating income from the farm and other family income, is projected to reach $131,595 in 2014 and $134,931 in 2015. Average net worth per farm is expected to set new records of $2.0 million in 2014 and $2.1 million in 2015.
• Exceptional market incomes over the past several years have contributed to lower program payments in 2014 and 2015 compared to previous years. BF