Except for corn, Canadian field crop stocks are down UPDATED 6 February 2013

Monday, February 4, 2013

by BETTER FARMING STAFF

While Statistics Canada’s most recent account of national stocks of field crops shows an increase in stocks of corn, a decline in stocks of soybeans and comfortable margins for wheat, it doesn’t provide all the information farmers need to make cropping decisions.

Todd Austin, Grain Farmers of Ontario marketing manager, says we should look to U.S.  and global numbers to get a clearer picture of what the 2013 crop year might bring in terms of prices, but even that doesn’t tell the whole story.

“Markets can change pretty quickly depending on the weather. It’s tough six months prior to harvest to know what’s going to happen,” Austin says. He recommends sticking to crop rotations and best management practices.

Austin says reduced soybean stocks reflect strong market demand while an increase in corn stocks can be attributed to better than average yields for Ontario farmers.

The Statistics Canada report, released today, shows total stocks of most principal field crops, as of Dec. 31, were down compared with the same date in 2011.

Total stocks of wheat edged down 0.7 per cent from December 31, 2011, to just under 20.7 million tonnes.
 
Stocks of oats recorded a 19.8 per cent decline to 1.9 million tonnes nationally, primarily due to a 21.2 per cent decrease in on-farm stocks. There was a 15 per cent decrease in oat production in 2012.
 
Total stocks of barley fell 7.2 per cent to 5.1 million tonnes, mainly as a result of a 6.2 per cent decline in volumes kept on farms.

On-farm stocks of soybeans decreased 25.6 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes nationally, while commercial stocks rose 36.5 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes, their highest level since 2006. Consequently, total stocks of soybeans fell 6.7 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes – despite a 14.7 per cent production increase in 2012.
 
Total stocks of corn for grain, on the other hand, set a record high of 10.4 million tonnes, a 9.8 per cent rise over December 2011. This followed record production of 13.1 million tonnes in 2012. The biggest contribution came from on-farm stocks, which increased 11 per cent to 7.8 million tonnes.

Canola stocks, at 7.4 million tonnes, were down 23.6 per cent to the lowest level since 2006. Production of canola fell from 14.6 million tonnes in 2011 to 13.3 million tonnes in 2012. BF
 

UPDATE: 6 February 2013

While harvested tonnage of canola dropped in Canada last year, it wasn’t for lack of effort by producers. A record 21.2 million acres was planted in Canada in 2012, mostly in the West. However, severe insect and disease pressures right across the country reduced the yield to 13.3 million tonnes. In 2011, when just 18.8 million acres were planted, the yield was 14.6 million tonnes.

James McKinlay, president of the Ontario Canola Growers Association, says Ontario producers planted the usual amount last year – 60,000 to 65,000 acres. However, yields averaged 1,890 pounds per acre, down from 2,000 to 2,100 pounds per acre Ontario producers had averaged in recent years.

“I think it was largely because we had tremendous insect and disease pressure and that was all across the country,” McKinlay says, adding that the decline in canola stocks reported by Statistics Canada as of Dec. 31, 2012, is a reflection of high demand and an increase in the crush capacity in Canada, as well as reduced yield. StatsCan reported that year-end stocks of canola amounted to 7.4 million tonnes, a 23.6 per cent drop from December, 2011. BF