Risk-assessment models prove ineffective

Monday, December 7, 2015

A recent study has found that current risk-assessment models can't tell safe crops from invasive weeds.

Over the years, concerns have been raised over the invasive tendencies of certain biofuel crops, with risk-assessments recommended before planting. But scientists at Virginia Tech have found that the current "gold-standard" risk-assessment models, used to determine a plant's risk of becoming invasive, are ineffective.

According to a press release, the scientists used two of the top risk-assessment models to test 16 bioenergy crops, 14 agronomic crops and 10 known invasive weeds introduced for agronomic purposes. Neither model could reliably distinguish between weeds and crops. Kudzu – a damaging invasive species that has spread across the American southeast – was rated as safer than cereal rye.

"It is clear we should be cautious about using current risk assessment models in setting biofuels policy," Jacob Barney, assistant professor at Virginia Tech said in the press release. BF