USDA report mostly upbeat

Sunday, February 10, 2013

by BETTER FARMING STAFF

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) 10-year forecast, issued today, predicts prices for major crops will decline in 2014 to 2015 and then increase from 2015 to 2022.

“High commodity prices are projected to lead to record values of U.S. agricultural exports and U.S. net farm income in 2013,” the report says. “Grain and oilseed prices along with export values and farm cash receipts are then projected to decline in 2014 to 2015, but grow over the rest of the projection period as a return to steady domestic and international economic growth, a weaker dollar, and continuing production of biofuels support longer term demand for U.S. agricultural products.”

The 10-year forecast, issued annually, is similar to Agriculture Canada’s medium-term, 10-year outlook. That forecast is expected by the end of the month. While the USDA report goes on for 56 pages, AgCanada’s report last year ran to three pages. The Canadian report acknowledges “short-term price forecasts” use USDA projections.

Predictions for the livestock sector are variable. Feed costs are expected to fall and demand for meat to strengthen. Beef cattle prices are expected to strengthen through 2015 and then decline as production picks up. “Hog prices rise in the near term but then decline for several years as red meat production rises.” Milk prices are also expected to decline from 2012 to 2015 and then increase, due primarily to “efficiency gains in production.”

David Sparling, chair in agri-food innovation at the Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario, says farmers shouldn’t hang production plans on 10-year projections.

“Anything out that far is unlikely to be accurate,” he says, adding the projections could “provide some information on big trends to consider in your planning.”

The full report's projections are based “on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather and international developments with no domestic or external shocks to global agriculture markets.” BF