Search
Better Farming OntarioBetter PorkBetter Farming Prairies

Better Farming Ontario Featured Articles

Better Farming Ontario magazine is published 11 times per year. After each edition is published, we share featured articles online.


Watch out for some changes in the weather as El Niño gives way to La Niña

Friday, April 8, 2016

For Ontario, it looks like a winter with a bit of everything but nothing too extreme and a summer with above-normal temperatures with a higher risk of the dangerous type of thunderstorms

by PHIL CHADWICK

Verification is perhaps the most important part of the forecast cycle. How did the prediction work out? We should learn as much from our failures as from our successes. If we have more successes than failures, then we should have more confidence in our forecasts. As a meteorologist, the only time one does not have a forecast failure of some kind is when one is off-duty.

The strong El Niño of 2015 and 2016 certainly played its role in the weather and produced significant global impacts – and even more headline news. There were some big rainfall events in California as well as some extreme snowfalls for the U.S. east coast. For Ontario, the winter of 2015-2016 had a slow start, but the predicted pattern has been in place a few weeks now and will continue through the rest of the winter.

 
The jet stream tells the basic story on the weather. It is simple and reliable. The heart of the Arctic vortex was more over northern Hudson's Bay than James Bay, but the predicted El Niño pattern is still very evident. Freezing rain and snow were big problems for most parts of Ontario. Cooler than normal temperatures can be found anywhere within the cold trough that the jet stream meanders around – but not as cold as the record-breaking year of 2015.

The past is the past, though, so what about the rest of 2016? The weather and climate typically behave like a wave overshooting any equilibrium position and letting momentum carry it into the opposite extreme. All indications are that the strong El Niño will weaken and slowly transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – neutral during the late spring or early summer 2016. Furthermore, as depicted in the accompanying graph, the predictions for the fall of 2016 are for La Niña or basically the opposite of La Niño. 


The phrase "La Niña" is Spanish for "the girl" and describes conditions where the equatorial Pacific waters toward the South American coast are anomalously cool. The fishing gets better along that coast of South America, leading the fishermen to give a name to the associated phenomenon. La Niñas  appear approximately every three to five years and typically last one to two years. There are lots of physical and numerical modelling reasons to predict a La Niña event starting in the fall of 2016 but, to be prudent, nothing is certain in life except death and taxes.

The impacts of a La Niña can be best described by using the changes it makes on the jet stream.

Both the west coast ridge of high pressure and the trough over the eastern continent are weaker. The impacts on weather can be summarized as: above average precipitation in British Columbia; colder-than-normal temperatures in the Prairies; and above average precipitation in Ontario and Quebec. The United States can experience drier conditions in both the western Pacific and the southeastern United States. It is also believed that La Niña's cooling of the equatorial Pacific tends to favour hurricane formation in the western Atlantic.

For Ontario, it looks more like a winter with a bit of everything but nothing too extreme. The cold waves will come, but they will also go and not linger. Precipitation will be above-normal, especially in the snow belts around the Great Lakes. From personal research, I have also found that La Niña summers tended to produce more supercell-type thunderstorms than single cell pulse storms. I have very valid scientific reasons for this, but it also came out in the statistics that I produced.  Supercell thunderstorms are responsible for most convective severe events like large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. This research was not published though and I would be sticking my neck out to assert that this prediction as 100 per cent reliable.

So expect some changes for the rest of 2016. For Ontario, above-normal temperatures for the summer with a higher risk of the dangerous type of thunderstorms. As the La Niña gets established, add in above normal precipitation especially in the snow belts around the Great Lakes. Remember, we are all in this together. BF  

Phil the Forecaster Chadwick has been a professional meteorologist since 1977, specializing in training, severe weather and remote satellite and radar sensing.

Current Issue

September 2025

Better Farming Magazine

Farms.com Breaking News

Festival of Guest Nations returns to Leamington

Friday, September 12, 2025

On Sunday, September 14, 2025, Seacliff Park in Leamington, Ontario, will come alive with music, food, and celebration as the Festival of Guest Nations returns to honour the migrant worker communities who play a vital role in Essex County’s agricultural economy. With more than 20 years... Read this article online

York Region launching new Agri-Food Startup Program

Thursday, September 11, 2025

A new program in York Region is designed to help entrepreneurs find their footing in the food space. The 14-week hybrid Agri-Food Start-up Program partners entrepreneurs with local organizations like the Foodpreneur Lab, Syzl, York Region Food Network, and the Chippewas of Georgina Island... Read this article online

Corn and Soybean Diseases Spread This Season

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

As reported on the OMAFRA website fieldcropnews.com, as well as in previous articles by Farms.com, the 2025 growing season is nearing its end with corn and soybean farmers in Ontario and the U.S. Corn Belt facing disease challenges that reflect changing weather conditions. For corn, two... Read this article online

Wheat Output Decline Projected for 2025

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Statistics Canada’s latest modelled estimates suggest that wheat production in Canada will decline slightly in 2025, driven primarily by weaker yields across several regions. National output is expected to edge down 1.1% to 35.5 million tonnes, with yields forecast to fall 1.2% to 49.6... Read this article online

BF logo

It's farming. And it's better.

 

a Farms.com Company

Subscriptions

Subscriber inquiries, change of address, or USA and international orders, please email: subscriptions@betterfarming.com or call 888-248-4893 x 281.


Article Ideas & Media Releases

Have a story idea or media release? If you want coverage of an ag issue, trend, or company news, please email us.

Follow us on Social Media

 

Sign up to a Farms.com Newsletter

 

DisclaimerPrivacy Policy2025 ©AgMedia Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Back To Top