Producing more pork and eating less
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Changes in pork production and consumption in Ontario point to the success of our industry's exports
by RANDY DUFFY
In 2011, Ontario's annual total pig production (hogs processed in Canada plus live pig exports to the United States) was estimated to be 6.1 million head or 117,000 per week from an average sow inventory of 343,000. It is interesting that these figures are similar to where the industry was at in 2000. However, between 2000 and 2011 industry trends have changed.
In 2000, per capita pork consumption on a carcass weight basis was 28.69 kg per person. The average market hog carcass weight was 88.4 kg. In 2011, per capita consumption had dropped to 20.8 kg while the average market hog carcass weight had increased to 96.3 kg.
Figure 1 shows the Ontario average weekly federal and provincial hog slaughter for the period 2000 to 2011 (blue line). Also shown are the weekly hog equivalents based on average carcass weight for Ontario's pork consumption (red line), exports (green line) and imports (orange line).
Ontario's weekly hog slaughter has gone from 78,000 in 2000 to 86,000 in 2011. Weekly consumption has gone from 73,000 hog equivalents to 56,000 in 2011. Pork exports have increased from 27,000 hog equivalents to 48,000 while pork imports have gone from 11,000 in 2000 to 29,000 in 2011.
The decrease in pork consumption over this period is very concerning. This has happened at a time when the Ontario population has increased. Changing population demographics, food consumption patterns and economic conditions have resulted in per capita pork consumption taking a big hit. Although consumption in terms of pork volume has decreased, the increase in retail pork prices since 2000 has offset much of the decline in terms of the actual dollar amount spent by consumers at the retail level.
The issue of rising pork imports is complicated in that Ontario is a major port of entry for products entering Canada. It stands to reason that not all of the imports remain in Ontario to be consumed here and that some of this product is redistributed to other provinces. Ontario's share of the Canadian population in 2011 was 39 per cent. If an equivalent amount of imports then remained in Ontario to be consumed this would only be equivalent to 11,000 head per week.
Pork exports are a tremendous success story. Since slaughter has increased but consumption has decreased, it makes sense that exports have risen and this has occurred despite the strengthening Canadian dollar over this period. It is interesting that the increase in pork exports (+21,000 hog equivalents) have kept pace with the increase in pork imports (+18,000 hog equivalents).
When comparing trends between 2000 and 2011, it is noteworthy that while some things are not that different (pig production and sow herd figures), other things are very different (consumption, exports and imports). What will the Ontario industry profile look like five or 10 years from now? BP
Randy Duffy is Research Associate at the University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus.
