Hog Outlook: January 17, 2014

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Pork exports during November were down 2.9% compared to a year earlier due to almost no pork going to Russia. Pork imports were up 14.3% in November due to more pork from Canada. In November, 22.2% of U.S. pork production was exported. Imports equaled 4.0% of production.

Feeder/weaner pig imports were down 16.4% in November and imports of other hogs were down 15.4%.

Retail pork prices in December averaged $3.761 per pound. That was down 1.5 cents from the month before, but up 33.4 cents compared to a year ago.

The average price for 51-52% lean hogs was $58.16/cwt in December. That was down $2.06 from November and down $1.00 from December 2012.

With December retail pork prices above a year ago and hog prices below, the farm to retail price spread, $2.764 per pound in December, was 2.0 cents higher than in November and 35 cents higher than a year ago. Most of the year-over-year increase has been at the retail level.

Friday morning's pork cutout value based on mandatory price reporting was $86.49/cwt FOB plants, up $3.88 from the week before and up $2.61 from a year ago.

Hog prices ended the week a bit lower. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $75.95/cwt, down 51 cents from last Friday and down $4.40 from a year ago. There was no price quotes for the western corn belt or Iowa-Minnesota morning. The eastern corn belt averaged $75.97/cwt. Peoria had a live price top this morning of $53/cwt. Zumbrota, MN also topped at $52/cwt. The top price for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $55/cwt, down $1.50 from last Friday. This morning's hog carcass price averaged 87.8% of the cutout value.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.263 million head, up 9.1% from the week before (which was low because of cold and snow) and up 2.6% compared to the same week last year.

The average live weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 282.6 pounds, down 0.3 pound from a week earlier and up 6.1 pounds from a year ago. This weight series has been above year-ago every week since March 2013.

The February lean hog futures contract settled at $86.17/cwt today, up 35 cents from the previous Friday. April hog futures ended the week at $91.90/cwt, up 90 cents from the week before. May hogs gained 73 cents to close at $99.60. The June contract ended the week at $101.57/cwt. July closed at $100.20/cwt.

March corn futures ended the week at $4.24 per bushel, down 9 cents from the week before. June corn settled at $4.385/bushel.

March soybean meal futures ended the week at $434.50 per ton, up $20.90 from the previous Friday.

Posted on: 
January 17, 2014

Dr. Ronald L. Plain is D. Howard Doane Professor and is Extension Economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He serves as program leader for extension within the department and has been a faculty member at MU since 1981. He can be reached by e-mail at plainr@missouri.edu His website is: http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr

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