By Ron Plain and Scott Brown
USDA estimates 40% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition on July 8. That compares to 48% good or excellent the week before and 69% a year ago. The Crop Progress report says 40% of the soybean crop was rated good or excellent on July 8 compared to 45% a week earlier and 66% a year ago. Nationally, 50% of pastures were rated poor or very poor on July 8. That compares to 43% poor or very poor the week before and 29% a year ago. For Missouri pastures, the number is 87% poor or very poor.
USDA's July crop report lowered predicted corn yield to 146 bushels per acre and raised the predicted marketing year price to $5.90/bu. The July corn futures contract ended the week at $7.5575/bu, up 13 cents from the week before and up $1.76 from four weeks earlier. December corn ended the week at $7.405/bu. July soybean meal ended the week at $489.90/ton, up $18.30 from the previous Friday.
Iowa State University calculations put the breakeven price for markets hogs sold in June at $65.12/cwt, the highest since December. Fortunately, hog prices jumped and the average June profit was $22.40 per head sold. During the first half of 2012, the average hog was sold at a profit of 69 cents per head.
Pork exports during May were up 9.6% from a year ago and pork imports were down 2.7%. For the month, exports equaled 23.3% of production and imports equaled 3.3% of production. During the first five months of 2012, pork exports were up 265 million pounds (12.8%) with 70% of the increase going to China.
USDA's Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $89.51/cwt, down $1.13 from the previous Thursday and $9.15 lower than this week last year. Bacon demand continues to be strong. Pork bellies are at $138/cwt, up $5.07 from a week ago, up $8.42 from a year ago, and the highest since August 22.
Hog prices dropped this week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $88.46/cwt, down $6.87 from last Friday. The eastern corn belt averaged $87.65/cwt this morning. The western corn belt averaged $92.48/cwt. Iowa-Minnesota averaged $92.92/cwt on the morning report. The east-west price spread remains very large. Peoria had a top live price this morning of $61 and Zumbrota had a live top today of $62/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $67.50/cwt, down $1.50 from the previous Friday. The average hog carcass price is 98.8% of the cutout value.
Hog slaughter this week totaled 1.959 million head, up 11.6% from the week before because of the July 4 holiday, but down 3.6% compared to the same week last year. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 269.0 pounds, down 1.0 pound from a week earlier, up 2.4 pounds from a year ago, and above year-earlier for the 33rd consecutive week.
Friday's close for the July lean hog futures contract was $97.22/cwt, up $1.00 from the previous Friday. August hogs settled at $90.40/cwt, down $2.90 for the week. October hogs ended the week at $79.47/cwt.