Hog Outlook: October 18, 2013

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USDA market reporters went back to work on Thursday. Hopefully, we will soon have the normal set of market reports. USDA has announced that the October Cattle on Feed report, which was scheduled for release today, has been postponed until October 31. The monthly Cold Storage, Livestock Slaughter, and Chicken and Eggs reports will also be released on October 31. The October Crop Production and WASDE reports have been cancelled. The next WASDE is scheduled for November 8.

On the morning report today, the national weighted average negotiated carcass price for barrows and gilts was $89.33/cwt. That is 32 cents higher than USDA's last morning report on September 30.

The western corn belt's morning market hog carcass price average was $90.78/cwt today. Iowa-Minnesota averaged $90.93/cwt. There was no morning price quote in the eastern corn belt. Peoria had a live price top this morning of $60/cwt, up $1 for the week. Zumbrota, MN was 50 cents lower than last Friday with a top at $61.50/cwt. Missouri country markets were $1.50 lower with a top at $62.25/cwt of live weight.

USDA calculations put this morning's pork carcass cutout value at $92.87/cwt, down $9.46 from their last morning report issued on September 30. The average hog price is 96.2% of cutout which is unusually high. Don't be surprised if packers lower their bids next week.

USDA says that today's hog slaughter totaled 430,000 head. They predict 135,000 will be slaughtered tomorrow. Trade estimates put this week's total hog slaughter at 2.301 million head. That is up 0.5% from the week before, but down 3.4% from a year ago.

Testing data from the National Animal Health Laboratory Network says that as of October 6, the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus has been found in 768 swine premises in 18 states. This is an increase of 44 locations and one state, Kentucky, from the week before. There is an unknown amount of double counting in this data.

The December lean hog futures contract settled at $87.95/cwt today, up $1.45 from the previous Friday. February hog futures ended the week at $90.05/cwt, up $1.15 from the week before. April hogs settled at $89.85. June close at $95.65/cwt. 

The December corn futures contract ended the week at $4.415/bushel, down 5 cents for the week. March corn settled at $4.54/bushel down 0.5 cent from the previous Friday. May corn futures ended the week at $4.62/bushel.

The December soybean meal contract ended the week at $410.10 per ton, up $6.70 from the previous Friday. January meal settled at $405.60, up $4.70 for the week. March meal settled at $394.90 per ton.

Posted on: 
October 18, 2013

Dr. Ronald L. Plain is D. Howard Doane Professor and is Extension Economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He serves as program leader for extension within the department and has been a faculty member at MU since 1981. He can be reached by e-mail at plainr@missouri.edu His website is: http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr

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