'Food shock' seen as result of climate change

Friday, April 8, 2016

Rather than postulating that climate change will turn the Canadian Prairies into a new northern corn belt, scientists are growing concerned about a phenomenon they call "food shock," the increasing likelihood that climate-induced economic shocks will greatly affect the global food system, especially if they hit different breadbaskets at the same time.

On the website of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, prior to its annual convention in February, Tim Benton of Global Food Security Program in the United Kingdom asked: "What if severe drought in the U.S. Midwest drives down the soy and maize harvest at the same time that a record-breaking heat wave in Europe bakes the continent's wheat crop? Or if agricultural reform in China leads to a decrease in rice production at the same time that Bangladesh has floods? How badly would world prices and availability be affected?" The conference was held in Washington, D.C.

Canadians got a hint of the effects of droughts elsewhere when cauliflower prices skyrocketed in early January, a result of the extended drought in California. Less well known is that before the civil war in Syria, drought resulted in the death of about 70 per cent of the livestock there, a factor in decreased political stability.

Some ideas suggested: ensuring that trade works by maintaining trade routes and logistics as well as international agreements to avoid export bans; and understanding how patterns of extreme weather are changing and adapting accordingly. And then there's reducing emissions from food production by changing diets. BF